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Re: Any bets?

rebustion <rebust...@googlemail.com>

On 30 June, 06:53, "Duncan Heenan" <duncanhee...@tiscali.co.uk> wrote:

++snip++

> No. I doubt if it will happen suddenly. I predict a protracted decline. As
> it shrinks, it will be forced to cut back and cut back, and the people will
> get older and older and more out of touch, but there is nothing waiting in
> the wings to replace it,

ABNC is quite capable of replacing the kind of "service" CCBN seems to
think it gives to clubs because it's doing even more for them now than
CCBN has ever done. Individual members have effectively proved they
don't need their own nationalorganisation any more, otherwise CCBN
membership wouldn't have fallen from 20,094 at the end of 1993 (see BN
119, Spring 1994) to half of that now.

> The only thing which could kill it suddenly is the continued total lack of
> proper financial management (no Treasurer yet again these elections!), which
> could lead to sudden bankruptcy if there were a profligate and stupid
> Chairman. We currently have a stupid Chairman,
> but I doubt whether he is profligate. He is however in the thrall of Andrew
> Welch ( as
> are they all), which is virtually the same thing.

A dangerous mixture indeed.Farrar is indeed stupid and Welch has
proved his profligacy. Put the two together and you're not far off
financial collapse already.

For what it's worth I'd put my money on a slow and painful decline
with the end some time around 2014/2015, after the entirety of CCBN's
reserves have found their way into Welch's account and the
organisation is just a desiccated husk that he's unable to suck
anything more out of and so he's lost interest in its survival.