He says "over" 100,000 and I think that's right. It will be over
100,000 by the end of August based on current figures. The "over"
matters to the maths.

He says the cases are doubling. It may be closer to tripling.

So, the Minister is perhaps understandably slightly under estimating.
Who knows?  He might be right.

Based on multiple sources, it will have peaked by mid September, maybe
a little later if the Ministers figures are nearer to being right.
Before winter and before a vaccine becomes available.

That casts doubt on the decision taken to replace seasonal flu vaccine
with H1N1 vaccine, which in turn illustrates the human cost of not
getting the start point and date established and accurate figures
earlier.

Dodgy data costs lives.

The plus point is that the over 60s do seem to have natural immunity.
Self interest aside, they would bed block during a period of intense
pressure. Although children with pre-existing conditions are most at
risk, the total deaths are still low. MRSA has played at part in
children's deaths in the USA.

The major risks now are a mutation, especially in under- supervised
pig farms - with a second wave and the possibility of increased MRSA
related deaths.

We need to know that pig farms are being watched, that humans with flu
are kept away from pigs.

We need to know whether British pigs have MRSA, for how long, at what
percentage and which strains. We need to test pig and pork workers and
vets for MRSA, at the workplace and on entry to hospital. We need to
use the more invasive tests that throw up a smaller number of false
negatives.

None of this will be done of course.  Kids die whilst British
government veterinary science prances about manufacturing and
disseminating fake data.

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