BANGKOK (AP) – The United States, although embarking on a new policy
of engagement, will not lift its sanctions on Myanmar unless its
ruling generals make concrete progress toward democratic reform, a
senior U.S. diplomat said Thursday.

U.S. Ambassador for ASEAN Affairs Scot Marciel spoke after he and
another State Department official completed the highest-ranking visit
to Myanmar in 14 years, putting into motion the Obama administration's
new policy of "pragmatic engagement" with the isolated country.

He made it clear that the stick would remain along with the new
carrot, and that Washington would be closely watching the junta's next
moves.

"We are going to maintain our existing sanctions, pending progress.
They are still a useful tool. We would certainly be looking at lifting
sanctions if there is significant progress," Marciel told a forum at
Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

He and Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell held talks Tuesday
and Wednesday with the ruling generals and had a rare meeting with
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate who
has been under house arrest for most of the last two decades.

Marciel, ambassador to the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian
Nations, stressed the vital sign that positive change was being made
would be a real dialogue among Myanmar's antagonistic parties — the
military ruler's, Suu Kyi's democracy parties and ethnic minority
groups. Without this, he said, next year's general election would not
be credible.

"There is an opportunity for progress. The elections could be an
opportunity, but only if they are done right," he said.

The freeing of Suu Kyi and other political prisoners and cessation of
human rights abuses against minority groups would be other signals
that would trigger a positive U.S. response, Marciel said.

"We are under no illusion. When you look at the record, past
diplomatic efforts have not succeeded," he said, noting that neither
Washington's sanctions nor ASEAN's soft-line engagement had worked.

Campbell and Marciel are the highest-ranking American diplomats to
visit Myanmar, also known as Burma, since 1995, when then-U.N.
Ambassador Madeleine Albright made an official visit.

It was the second time in a few months that the junta allowed Suu Kyi
to meet with a senior American official. In August, visiting U.S. Sen.
Jim Webb of Virginia met her and also held talks with Prime Minister
Gen. Thein Sein and top junta chief Senior Gen. Than Shwe.

Suu Kyi, 64, has been detained for 14 of the past 20 years.

For years, the United States had isolated the junta diplomatically and
applied political and economic sanctions, which have failed to force
the generals to respect human rights or release jailed political
activists. The Obama administration decided recently to step up
diplomatic engagement as a way of promoting reforms.

Myanmar's junta has praised the new U.S. policy, but shown no sign it
intends to release Suu Kyi or initiate democratic and electoral
reforms demanded by Suu Kyi's party ahead of the elections.

Suu Kyi's party has not yet decided whether to take part in the 2010
polls, which it says were set up under a constitution established last
year by undemocratic means. The constitution includes provisions that
would bar Suu Kyi from holding office and ensure the military a
controlling stake in government.

Suu Kyi was recently sentenced to an additional 18 months of house
arrest for briefly sheltering an uninvited American, in a trial that
drew global condemnation. The sentence means she will not be able to
participate in next year's elections, the first in two decades.
*************************************************************
Myanmar election needs Suu Kyi involvement, U.S. says
By Martin Petty – Thu Nov 5, 3:49 am ET

BANGKOK (Reuters) – It would be "very hard" for next year's elections
in Myanmar to be legitimate without the involvement of detained
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, a senior United States official
said on Thursday .

Deputy Assistant Secretary Scot Marciel, returning from a landmark two-
day visit to the army-ruled country, said the release of the National
League for Democracy (NLD) leader and other political detainees was
critical for the polls to be considered fair and credible.

"I think an election without Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD, it would be
very hard to see that as credible," Marciel told reporters in Bangkok.

The NLD, denied the chance to rule after a landslide win in the last
elections in 1990, has yet to confirm whether it will participate in
the polls.

"In the end, it's up to Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD to make that
call," Marciel said.

Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize winner held captive for 14 of the last 20
years, was offered a rare chance to meet NLD committee members on
Wednesday, but declined because its detained vice-chairman, Tin Oo,
was excluded, state television reported.

Marciel declined comment on that development.

He stated repeatedly during a one-hour forum that Washington's
objective was to encourage dialogue between the various camps inside
Myanmar.

"I frankly cannot see how there can be a credible election that brings
legitimacy without inclusive participation and I don't see how that
can happen without a dialogue," he said.

EXPLORATORY MISSION

The U.S. visit, the first of its kind in 14 years, comes as part of a
new policy of engagement by the Obama administration and was described
as an "exploratory mission" by Washington.

Marciel reiterated that the U.S. had no immediate plans to lift wide-
ranging sanctions on Myanmar but said the embargoes would be reviewed,
depending on reforms.

"A policy that relies heavily on sanctions without dialogue has not
succeeded but sanctions are still a useful tool," he said.

"We do not think it is appropriate or wise to lift sanctions now in
the absence of progress, but we certainly would be looking at them if
there is progress ... The purpose of sanctions is to achieve an end."

The delegation met senior junta officials, ethnic groups, the NLD and
Suu Kyi during the visit. Marciel did not elaborate on what was
discussed, or why they failed to meet junta supremo Than Shwe, saying
only: "It's early in the process."

Marciel urged the military, which has ruled the former Burma since a
1962 coup, to be more inclusive and not to fear the prospect of
democratic reform.

"This is a country moving steadily backwards for a long time. There is
a way ahead, but it will involve change and there cannot be progress
without change," he said.

He urged the international community to judge Myanmar on results, not
on pledges, adding the United States was taking a "pragmatic approach"
and did not expect immediate progress.

"We're going into this with eyes wide open, we're not under any
illusions and we're aware that success is far from guaranteed," he
said. "We will proceed for a while and if it doesn't work, we'll try
something new.

"We should be very humble and not assume we have the answers until we
have results." (Editing by Alan Raybould and Jerry Norton)
*************************************************************
Q+A: Why is the United States engaging with Myanmar?
Thu Nov 5, 2009 4:53am EST
By Martin Petty

BANGKOK (Reuters) - It would be very hard for elections next year in
army-ruled Myanmar to be credible without detained opposition leader
Aung San Suu Kyi's involvement, a top U.S. official said on Thursday.

Deputy Assistant Secretary Scot Marciel made the comment after a two-
day visit to Myanmar, the first in 14 years by a top U.S. delegation
and part of Washington's new policy of rapprochement with the
reclusive junta.

WHY IS WASHINGTON ENGAGING WITH MYANMAR?

The Obama administration has recognized sanctions have failed and
dialogue is needed to spur democratic reforms. It believes there is a
better chance of progress if it engages and encourages the junta
instead of disparaging the regime and ignoring it.

Washington is also concerned about reports of possible nuclear ties
between North Korea and Myanmar, although it accepts there is so far
scant evidence to prove this.

IS THERE A GEOPOLITICAL AGENDA?

Analysts and diplomats see another big factor behind the change in
Washington's stance: China. It is no secret the United States is
concerned about China's influence and wants to counter that by
strengthening its presence and diplomacy in the region.

China may not be Myanmar's greatest friend but it is its economic
lifeline, pumping billions of dollars into the country and serving as
a reliable political ally. Washington might not be be so comfortable
with that.

China has begun building a crude oil port in Myanmar, part of a
pipeline project aimed at cutting out the long detour oil cargoes take
through the congested Malcca Strait. The nearly 1,000-km long pipeline
is expected to provide Myanmar with at least $29 billion over the 30
years, according to rights groups.

"It's is a big concern and geopolitically, it's difficult to counter
the effect of China," said Sean Turnell, a Myanmar analyst at
Australia's Macquarie University.

"However, Burma sees China's economic domination as a problem and it
might want to show Beijing is not its only friend in town."

WILL WASHINGTON LIFT SANCTIONS?

Not yet. While accepting sanctions have failed, the United States
insists trade, banking and travel embargoes will remain in place,
despite the softening of its stance toward Myanmar.

Marciel said sanctions could be reviewed, and the issue put before
lawmakers, only if the generals showed significant progress toward
reforms, which could be a long way off.

WHAT IS THE UNITED STATES ASKING OF THE JUNTA?

Its main objective is to encourage the generals to be more inclusive
and to make sufficient concessions to allow all players to take part
in the political process, which includes ethnic groups and opposition
parties.

Washington has repeatedly asked for the estimated 2,000 political
prisoners to be freed and allowed to take part in the polls, and wants
Suu Kyi to be released, or at least allowed to meet with her party.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?

Washington says it is taking a pragmatic, open-minded approach and has
described this week's visit by the fact-finding mission as
"exploratory dialogue."

Both sides have agreed to appoint a special envoy to continue the two-
way dialogue, but it is perhaps too soon for higher-level meetings.
This week's snub by junta supremo, Senior General Than Shwe, was
indicative of that.

Marciel said it was unlikely a meeting would take place between
Myanmar Prime Minister Thein Sein and either U.S. President Barack
Obama or Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at the inaugural
Association of South-East Asian Nations/United States summit in
Singapore later this month.(Editing by Jason Szep)
*************************************************************
Japan courts leaders from Mekong River region
Thu Nov 5, 2009 5:23am IST
By John Ruwitch

HANOI, Nov 5 (Reuters) - A jostle for influence in Southeast Asia's
emerging Mekong River region moves up a notch this week when Japan
hosts leaders from five countries where China and other players have
ramped up aid and investment.

The two-day event in Tokyo will focus on sustainable development and
climate change in a region that includes Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar,
Thailand and Vietnam.

The Mekong River snakes through a last frontier of emerging Asia,
scarred by war and anti-colonial struggles, a region viewed as
strategic for its proximity to shipping lanes and abundant natural
resources.

In recent decades, Tokyo has been the biggest outside source of aid to
the sub-region, whose combined population exceeds 220 million and with
a total GDP of more than $400 billion. Japanese companies were also
among the earliest foreign investors.

But China's global quest for resources, and its outward investment
drive of the past decade or so, have enlarged its presence in
Southeast Asia.

"The Japanese realise -- they've realised for a long time -- that they
are just being totally outmanoeuvred by the Chinese," said Richard
Cronin, Director of the Southeast Asia programme at the Henry L.
Stimson Center, a think tank in Washington, D.C.

One of the world's major river systems, the Mekong starts in the
Tibetan plateau and runs 4,800 km through China and Southeast Asia.
China will not be present at the summit.

DEVELOPING HYDROPOWER

The summit will discuss promoting development, while tackling
environment and climate change, cross-border problems such as
infectious disease, and promoting tourism, a Japanese Foreign Ministry
official told reporters on Wednesday.

He downplayed the notion of competition. "We don't need to compete
with others. If the region is developed, it will be beneficial to them
as well as to us."

Japan's new government has been keen to tackle climate change issues
and at a meeting of Japan-Mekong foreign ministers last month, they
discussed developing hydropower in a way that would protect the
environment and biodiversity.

Scientists say a cascade of dams on the upper Mekong in China and
further downstream, some being funded by China, threaten to alter the
waterway that directly sustains some 60 million people through
agriculture and fishing.

Since the early 1990s, Japan has led the way in funding the Asian
Development Bank's (ADB) Greater Mekong sub-region programme, which
has built roads and other infrastructure. This, analysts say, has laid
the groundwork for cross-border economic corridors linking the
capitals and major cities.

Lately, China has gotten into the act. In Cambodia, for instance,
Japan remains the biggest donor but China has become the largest
foreign investor. Prime Minister Hun Sen recently hailed China as his
country's best friend.

Chinese companies have been investing aggressively in Laos and
Myanmar, as well, building dams, harvesting timber, and participating
in mining projects. It is the third biggest investor in Laos and the
fourth in Myanmar, Xinhua reported.

Chinese government aid generally has come without strings attached,
making it an attractive choice for some governments in the region,
analysts say.

Beyond the economics, Cronin believes "it's about the issue of Asian
regionalism. Is it a real thing? Is it going to happen? And if it
happens, who is going to be in charge of it, or who's got the
advantage?"
*************************************************************
SCENARIOS - Myanmar's uncertain post-election future
10 hours 27 mins ago

Reuters - Next year military-ruled Myanmar will hold its first
democratic election in two decades, polls that critics say will be a
sham resulting in no significant transfer of power to a civilian
government.

The resource-rich nation of 48 million people is heading for a period
of uncertainty, with concerns about economic and social stability and
whether the country will really become any more democratic after
almost five decades of army rule.

Following are possible post-election scenarios:

COSMETIC CHANGE ONLY, MILITARY RETAINS POWER

Few believe the military will really hand over power to a civilian
government. The new constitution guarantees the army 25 percent of
parliamentary seats, and retired generals or army proxies are expected
to run and win plenty more. The military will have jurisdiction over
key ministries and reserves the right to take power at a time of
national crisis.

Civilians backed, or at least vetted, by the junta will probably be
given some government positions, but analysts say the power-hungry and
staunchly nationalist military will still control the major policy and
budgetary decisions.

"The generals have made sure they'll retain some power because they
believe they are the only institution that can keep the country
together," said Myanmar analyst David Steinberg, a Georgetown
University academic.

... IN THAT CASE, WILL SANCTIONS REMAIN?

Most analysts believe the West will maintain sanctions if the election
is deemed a sham, although the Unites States is reviewing its policy
and other voices are saying that sanctions have done nothing to change
the nature of the military regime.

One worry in the West is that sanctions are allowing the Chinese to
strengthen their presence in neighbouring Myanmar.

A pipeline is scheduled to take gas from the country to Yunnan
province from 2012 and an oil pipeline is also planned, which would
allow Chinese tankers to avoid the Malacca Straits.

One concern in both the West and Asian countries is that such
commercial involvement, as well as undermining Western sanctions,
could bring a military dimension, strengthening Chinese military clout
in the region.

GRADUAL TRANSFER TO CIVILIAN CONTROL

In the long term, Myanmar could undergo a gradual transition of power
to a civilian government, free of military control. This would be an
evolutionary process rather than a junta-inspired shift.

Future elections, constitutional amendments and shifts in the power
structure or patronage systems could lead to the emergence of splinter
groups or factions within the military; some may favour offering roles
to experienced, educated civilians deemed capable of handling key
areas, in particular, the economy.

"The generals may believe they can control political proxies, crony
businessmen, military colleagues and ethnic factions ... but in a new
context these groups might develop independent agendas," the
International Crisis Group said in a report.

THE PEOPLE MAY REJECT MILITARY-CONTROLLED GOVERNMENT

Decades of economic mismanagement, human rights abuses and failure to
invest sufficiently in education, health and public services have
created deep public resentment of the military.

Nationwide monk-led protests in 2007 triggered by increases in fuel
and cooking gas prices stoked public anger. The bloody crackdown that
followed showed the junta had no qualms about using force to suppress
dissent.

Myanmar's people have been promised big things after the elections.
Analysts say they could revolt if a new government fails to deliver
the goods.

"Attitudes have changed radically there," said Trevor Wilson, a former
Australian ambassador to Myanmar, now an academic.

"The military has made plenty of mistakes before, so there's
definitely potential for things to explode if they continue to handle
things badly."

"DEMOCRACY" FAILS, MILITARY TAKES BACK POWER

The last time elections were held in 1990, the result was unfavourable
for the generals and they refused to hand over power. If the 2010
election process throws up problems, the regime could scrap or
indefinitely postpone the polls, citing reasons of national security
and stability.

Even if a government and national assembly are in place, a
constitutional clause allows the commander-in-chief to dissolve the
house and assume power at a time of crisis. If army influence wanes,
it could provoke a crisis of its own making as a pretext to wrestle
back control.

"They have given themselves a way out," said Win Min, an academic and
Burmese exile. "They can take back power whenever they want to."

However, most analysts say this is unlikely: provisions written into
the constitution, drafted mainly by the military, will ensure there is
no real threat to the status quo.
*************************************************************
US ready to improve Myanmar ties: envoy
by Rachel O'Brien – Thu Nov 5, 9:40 am ET

BANGKOK (AFP) – Washington is ready to boost ties with Myanmar but
will not lift sanctions until there is progress on democracy, a US
diplomat said Thursday after the highest-level talks with the ruling
junta in years.

US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs
Kurt Campbell and his deputy Scot Marciel held rare meetings with
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and premier Thein Sein on a two-day
visit ending Wednesday.

"This is early days, the first time we met most of these people. It's
going to take some time to see how they respond," said Marciel, who is
also the US ambassador to ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian
Nations) affairs.

"We are willing to move ahead in terms of bilateral relations but we
are only going to do that if there is real progress," he told a public
forum on Thursday in Bangkok, capital of neighbouring Thailand.

The trip came two months after the administration of US President
Barack Obama changed its policy on Myanmar, saying it would push for
engagement with the military regime because sanctions on their own had
failed to bear fruit.

Marciel said the United States wanted to see the release of Suu Kyi
and other political prisoners, improvements in human rights and the
pursuit of democratic reform ahead of elections promised by the junta
in 2010.

The ruling generals have kept the 64-year-old in detention for most of
the last two decades and extended her house arrest by 18 months in
August after a bizarre incident in which an American man swam
uninvited to her lakeside house.

Asked about the elections, he said that it would be "very hard to say
that is credible" if Nobel peace prize winner Suu Kyi and her National
League for Democracy (NLD) party were not allowed to participate.

He also said it was "essential" that the opposition leader be allowed
regular opportunities to interact with colleagues in her party.

The NLD won Myanmar's last elections in 1990 but the junta refused to
recognise the result.

"If there is to be a credible election that fundamentally changes the
dynamic in the country, there needs to be dialogue and there needs to
be participation," said Marciel.

He stressed that this dialogue within Myanmar -- which has been under
military rule since 1962 -- needed to include the country's ethnic
groups as well as the government and opposition.

The US diplomat said sanctions were "still a useful tool" and they
would only consider lifting them if there was sustained progress.

"We are not going to do tit-for-tat, we're talking about a whole range
of things we can do. We're not saying, 'If you do X, we'll do Y' --
more, 'If you make progress these are the sorts of areas we can move
in'," he added.

"We go into this knowing full well how difficult this is going to be.
We are under no illusions," he said, reiterating that it was an
"exploratory" mission.

The trip was a follow-up to discussions in New York in September
between US and Myanmar officials, themselves the highest level US
contact with the regime in nearly a decade.

Campbell and Marciel were the highest ranking US officials to travel
to Myanmar -- formerly known as Burma -- since Madeleine Albright went
as US ambassador to the United Nations in 1995 during Bill Clinton's
presidency.
*************************************************************
US Ready To Improve Ties With Myanmar If Junta Reciprocates
11/4/2009 11:33 AM ET
by RTT Staff Writer

(RTTNews) - The visiting high-level U.S. State Department delegation
said the United States is ready to improve its relations with Myanmar
if the ruling military administration makes significant moves towards
political reconciliation.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell was briefing the media
Wednesday after holding separate talks with Myanmarese Prime Minister
Thein Sein and detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Scot Marciel also accompanied
Campbell on the two-day visit to the South East Asian country.

Campbell's meeting with Thein Sein was held in the capital, Naypyitaw,
Wednesday morning. Later, he was allowed to meet the Nobel Peace
laureate in Yangon.

Campbell is the highest ranking American official to visit Myanmar in
14 years. Senator Jim Webb, during his visit to Myanmar in August, had
made possible the release of its citizen jailed in that country for
swimming secretly to the home of Suu Kyi.

Reading a statement at Yangon Airport before leaving the country,
Campbell said the U.S. team stressed clearly that Washington was
prepared to take steps to improve the relationship, but the initiative
must be reciprocated with "complete efforts" by the junta.

The U.S. officials also met with other military leaders and Opposition
party members.
*************************************************************
The Christian Science Monitor
CSM - After high-level trip to Burma (Myanmar), US seeks to lower
expectations
Burma (Myanmar) should take steps toward reform such as allowing Aung
San Suu Kyi to enter 2010 elections, says US diplomat after a rare
visit.
By Simon Montlake | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
from the November 5, 2009 edition

Bangkok, Thailand - One day after the highest-level US diplomatic
visit to Burma since 1995, a US official downplayed the chances that
the Obama administration's policy of "pragmatic engagement"

with the regime will quickly lead to democratic reform or an improved
human rights record.

The US wants to see "real progress" in Burma, which is officially
known as Myanmar, before it extends bilateral ties with the country's
military junta, Assistant Secretary of State Scot Marciel said in
Bangkok on Thursday.

His cautious perspective, shared at a public forum, reflects that of
exiled pro-democracy activists who say that while the junta may have
some interest in warming ties, it has a history of stringing visiting
Western diplomats along without changing course. Since the 1990s,
successive United Nations special envoys have returned empty-handed
and been snubbed by junta leaders.

Pressed on what would constitute progress, Mr. Marciel declined to set
benchmarks. He said the international community wants the release of
detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other political
prisoners so that they could campaign in elections scheduled for next
year.

"There is an opportunity for progress… the elections could be an
opportunity. But they will only be an opportunity if they're done
right," said Marciel, who met with Ms. Suu Kyi during the visit. "I
don't see how there can be credible elections that bring legitimacy
without inclusive participation, and I don't see how this can happen
without a dialogue" among the political players.

The two-day diplomatic meeting between the US and Burma marks the end
of a Bush administration policy of isolating the regime and seeking to
corral Asian powers into punishing it.

US diplomats say that pressure is still needed, including from trading
partners like Thailand and China, if there is to be a political thaw.
Sanctions on Burma are a "useful tool" and will remain in place,
Marciel said. They include a freeze on US investments and visa bans on
government leaders and their families and business associates.

The shift in policy, however, signals the Obama administration's
recognition that isolation hasn't changed the behavior of the junta,
which took power in 1988 and has ruthlessly repressed internal
criticism and waged abusive campaigns against ethnic minorities.

Potential areas for compromise

During their visit, Marciel and Assistant Secretary of State Kurt
Campbell met senior government officials but not the junta's supreme
leader, General Than Shwe. Many experts on Burma say Than Shwe is
strongly opposed to making any concessions to Suu Kyi, whose party won
the country's 1990 elections. Those results were annuled by the junta
and Suu Kyi was placed under house arrest.

Under Burma's 2007 constitution, which Suu Kyi's National League for
Democracy opposed, one-quarter of the seats in parliament are reserved
for military officials. Other clauses empower the military to take
charge in case of threats to national security in a country that is
battling decades-old ethnic insurgencies.

Analysts say Burma's military, the largest in Southeast Asia, remains
the key to any transition to some form of democratic rule. "They might
be willing to compromise on some issues. Whether they're willing to
compromise on political issues is a huge question," says Thant Myint-
U, an author on Burmese history and a former UN official.

Bilateral issues that might be finessed include efforts to curb
Burma's illegal drugs production and a stop to any illicit dealings
with nuclear-armed North Korea. But it will be much harder to find
common ground on what constitutes free and fair elections, says Myint-
U.

Marciel said the US had raised the issue of nuclear proliferation with
Burmese officials, but offered no details. He said US humanitarian aid
to Burma was also on the agenda and that the US wanted to continue
this assistance, provided it was reaching those in need.

Why Burma might cooperate

Marciel said he wouldn't speculate on why Burma wanted to improve ties
with the US. He said the two sides had agreed to appoint envoys and
would likely meet next week on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific
Economic Cooperation summit in Singapore, which President Obama is
attending.

Khin Ohmar, a Thai-based activist at the Forum for Democracy in Burma,
said the regime was increasingly irked by the impact of US sanctions
and also had concerns over rising Chinese influence in Burma.

"It's clear, they want to see sanctions lifted," she says. The most
egregious, from the junta's perspective, are measures that forbid US
banks from dealing with Burma and visa bans on leaders and family
members, she says.

By reaching out to the US, the government also wants to balance its
dependence on China, which has invested heavily in Burma's natural
resources and become its main arms supplier. This lopsided
relationship and tensions over China's support for border rebels is
pushing nationalist generals to rekindle US ties, says Ms. Ohmar.
*************************************************************
A Rebel Stronghold in Myanmar on Alert
By THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE
Published: November 5, 2009

MONG HPEN, Myanmar — Conquering armies of centuries past avoided this
remote, mountainous area along the present-day border with China, a
place once described by a British colonial official as “an
unpenetrated enclave of savage hills.”

Inhabited by the Wa, an ethnic group once notorious for headhunting,
neither the British colonial overlords nor the Burmese kings who
preceded them saw much point in controlling the area.

But to Myanmar’s military government this rebel region is an
irritating piece of unfinished business and an impediment to the long-
cherished goal of national unity. Myanmar’s generals are demanding
that the Wa disband their substantial army here and fully subjugate
themselves to the central government, a call that has so far gone
unheeded. Both sides are bracing for potential conflict.

The tensions here might be glossed over by outsiders as yet another
arcane dispute in strife-ridden Myanmar between the government and a
mistrustful minority, except that the Wa have a well-equipped army of
at least 20,000 full-time soldiers — about twice the size of Ireland’s
armed forces — and are considered by the United States government as
hosts to one of the world’s largest illicit drug operations.

Conflict in the Wa-controlled areas, if it is not averted, could cause
a ramping up of drug trafficking across Asia and beyond as the Wa
government and other militias seek cash to buy weapons.

Northern Myanmar is very much a world apart, both lawless and heavily
militarized, a medieval-style patchwork of obscure ethnic armies,
borderland casinos, brothels and the walled compounds of drug lords.

Many rounds of negotiations between Myanmar’s generals and the ethnic
groups arrayed like an arc across the northern reaches of the country
have yielded nothing but delay for what many analysts believe is a
likely showdown. Wa soldiers have been put on standby.

“We were told to be ready and to keep a careful watch,” said Ai Yee, a
soldier from the Wa ethnic group who is based in Pangshang, the
headquarters of the United Wa State Army. “We are on the lookout for
anyone coming in — 24 hours a day.”

Mr. Ai spoke cautiously and reluctantly. Few outsiders visit the areas
under Wa control, except Chinese businessmen, drug traffickers and the
occasional official from the United Nations.

The Wa are the most heavily armed of about a dozen groups opposing
calls by Myanmar’s military government to become border guards in time
for the introduction of a new constitution next year. The generals who
lead this country, formerly known as Burma, consider the constitution
and the elections that will accompany it a milestone that will bring
the national consolidation that has long eluded them.

Myanmar’s top two commanders, Senior Gen. Than Shwe and Vice Senior
Gen.Maung Aye, now in their 70s, appear eager to finally bring the
ethnic groups to heel.

But the ferocity of the Wa, their apparent lack of fear and their
talent for silent, nighttime attacks remain embedded in the memories
of the generals, who fought and lost many bloody battles against them
in the decades after independence from Britain in 1948.

The potential scale of conflict is daunting. The Wa have a significant
arsenal, including about 300 shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles,
antitank weapons and ample assault rifles and ammunition, said Col.
Peeranate Katetem of the Thai Army, who has spent a decade tracking
the Wa.

Including reserve soldiers, Colonel Peeranate estimates the total
troop strength of the Wa, who control two noncontiguous territories,
at around 50,000 soldiers.

The Wa’s fearsome reputation comes partly from their harvest rituals
involving the severed heads of rival tribe members, a practice that
ceased sometime after World War II. Early foreign visitors, many of
them missionaries, found “skull groves” in the jungles outside
villages.

Today the mystique of the Wa persists. Young children in Myanmar are
told to come home before dark lest they be grabbed by the Wa.

These are outdated images. Here in Mong Hpen, a stronghold of the
United Wa State Army, Wa children play games at a downtown Internet
cafe close to the market, which is dominated by Chinese merchants.
There are reminders in Mong Hpen of what the Wa stand to lose if they
capitulate to the demands of Myanmar’s rulers: Like many other ethnic
groups, the Wa have their own schools, hospitals, electricity grid and
phone services. The Internet here is fast and free of censorship by
the Myanmar government.

The handful of foreign analysts who have studied the Wa, some of whom
cannot be identified because of the sensitivity of their work with
foreign militaries or law enforcement agencies, say the Wa are a
disciplined and militaristic society. Those who do not fall into line
are severely dealt with. Municipal work in Mong Hpen is partly carried
out by chain gangs: prisoners in clanking leg irons hack away at the
embankment of the main road near the local jail.

Older soldiers in Myanmar are inured to warfare. Fighting between the
central government and Chinese-backed Communist forces, which included
Wa soldiers, flared for decades until a series of cease-fire
agreements beginning in 1989. All males in Wa territory are required
to enter the army, and many, if not most, never leave, often pursuing
dual careers as soldiers and farmers. Almost all households in the Wa
and a neighboring allied fief known as Mong La include at least one
man in uniform.

“We are not afraid to fight,” said Chai Saam, a soldier from the Shan
ethnic group who has been in the Mong La army for 35 years and who
fought frequently against the central government in the first half of
his military career. “But we are afraid the air force will burn our
villages.”

He added: “We are afraid they will steal treasure from our villages.
We are afraid the Burmese soldiers will rape women.”

Even with their significant forces the Wa and other ethnic groups
would be vastly outnumbered by the Myanmar Army, which has about
450,000 soldiers and advanced weaponry. The Wa have built a series of
underground bunkers in Pangshang, according to Bertil Lintner, an
expert on ethnic groups in Myanmar who is based in Thailand. But
hiding might simply postpone defeat.

If they are attacked, the crucial question for all the ethnic groups
in northern Myanmar is what stance China would take.

“I don’t think the Wa can sustain a prolonged campaign unless they get
supplies from China — at the very least food and fuel,” Mr. Lintner
said.

China has divided loyalties in Myanmar. In recent years it has
supported Myanmar’s central government as a geostrategic ally,
coveting the country’s reserves of oil and gas and access to the
Indian Ocean. But China also has long-standing ties with all the armed
ethnic groups along the border, and many ethnic Chinese live, work and
have businesses inside Myanmar.

Almost all the ethnic groups — the Akha, Lahu, Kachin, Shan and Wa
among them — straddle the border between Myanmar and China, and many
travel across as if there were no border.

Beijing has reportedly sought assurances from Thein Sein, the Myanmar
prime minister, that peace will prevail along the border. After a
recent meeting of Asian leaders in Thailand, China’s state-run news
agency, Xinhua, quoted Prime Minister Wen Jiabao of China as saying
that Myanmar “could properly handle problems and safeguard peace and
stability in the China-Myanmar border region.”

China has been especially concerned about the situation since attacks
in August by the Myanmar military against the Kokang, a small ethnic
Chinese group. That campaign, combined with another attack by
government proxies against Karen rebels in June, seems to suggest that
the Myanmar junta’s demands that ethnic groups yield to its control
are not idle threats. The Kokang attack caused panic among wealthy
ethnic Chinese families, and many fled the Wa region, according to the
Shan Herald Agency for News, an online outlet devoted to news from
northern Myanmar.

The northern reaches of Myanmar are playgrounds of vice for Chinese
tourists and businessmen who stream across the border. The territory
of Mong La is run by Lin Mingxian, a former Red Guard during China’s
Cultural Revolution who today has a private army of about 3,000 men,
separate from but allied with the Wa forces.

During daylight hours the town appears sleepy. But when night falls
hundreds of prostitutes line up in orderly queues waiting for patrons
who arrive in taxis. More entrepreneurial prostitutes hand out calling
cards at outdoor restaurants. Hotels charge by the hour. Casinos in
the nearby town of Mong Ma lure Chinese gamblers. At a morning market
hawkers sell exotic animals from inland jungles — both live and
skinned.

The steep hills in northern Myanmar are lined with rubber plantations
that feed Chinese factories’ demand for latex. There is extreme
poverty — thatch huts and farmers tending fields with buffalo — but
also much unexplained wealth: modern, walled compounds and the
frequent passage of Mitsubishi Pajeros and Toyota Prado Land Cruisers,
vehicles that cost well upward of $100,000 in southern Myanmar because
of onerous import duties. (Residents of rebel-held areas in northern
Myanmar avoid the taxes because cars are imported through Laos or
China and bear license plates issued either by the Wa or Mong La
governments.)

United States and Thai counternarcotic officials believe that most of
the Wa wealth comes from selling methamphetamine and heroin, both of
which have been pouring across the border with Thailand in recent
months in unusually large quantities as the Wa and other groups seek
cash to buy weapons. The kingpin of the Wa drug operations is Wei
Hsueh-kang, according to the United States Drug Enforcement
Administration. He is one of 19 Wa leaders sought by the American
authorities. The United States is offering $2 million to anyone who
helps arrest Mr. Wei, who was born in China but has held leadership
positions in the Wa government over the past decade.

Given their isolation it seems unlikely that the Wa leadership will be
arrested anytime soon. But American counternarcotics officials argue
that the indictments have limited the leaders’ ability to travel and
run businesses outside of their territory.

“We have shrunk their cage — immobilized them to some degree,” said
Pamela Brown, an agent for the D.E.A. based in northern Thailand. “If
at some point they travel into a country with whom the United States
has an extradition treaty we are poised to extradite them.”

The situation in northern Myanmar presents a dilemma for the United
States, which has made overtures toward Myanmar’s generals in recent
months after having only very limited contact for the past two
decades. The United States would like to see a crackdown on drug lords
and their protectors. But military campaigns by the Myanmar government
have frequently been accompanied by widespread atrocities, including
the burning of villages, the use of child soldiers and rapes.

“We’re opposed to drug trafficking, but certainly we don’t want the
military to go in and attack people and create human rights violations
as they have in the past,” Scot Marciel, the State Department official
charged with policy for Southeast Asia, said in Bangkok Thursday.

“It’s very complicated.”

To the outside world, especially countries in Asia struggling to cope
with heroin and methamphetamine addictions, a critical question is how
a conflict would affect the supply of illicit drugs.

Mr. Lintner is pessimistic. Even if Myanmar’s military prevails
against the ethnic groups, drug trafficking will not be eradicated, he
said. Much of the opium harvested today in Myanmar is grown in areas
currently controlled, officially at least, by the central government,
he said.

“Local militias would probably persist — and with them the drug
trade,” he said. “These areas would remain lawless.”
*************************************************************
VOA News - Minority Communities Say Burma Development Projects Lead to
Abuses, Environmental Damage
By Ron Corben, Bangkok
05 November 2009

Minority communities in Burma say the exploitation of the country's
natural resources is damaging the environment and increasing the
military presence in their areas. The activists say greater public
participation is necessary in the development process to ensure that
communities benefit.

The Burma Environmental Group says the government's development
policies and efforts to extract natural resources have destroyed the
homes of thousands of people in border areas and is increasing hunger
among ethnic minority groups. On Thursday, the group released a report
saying there are more troops in minority areas and environmental
damage is spreading.

The group includes representatives from the Kachin, Karen, Lahu, and
Shan ethnic communities in Burma. Most of these communities live in
Burma's border areas.

Saw Paul Sein Twa is the director of the Karen Environmental and
Social Action Network. He says development projects have displaced
half a million people because their livelihoods are disrupted.
Thousands of them have fled to Thailand.

"So the path that the military government is taking us is to
environmental problems, lead us to crisis and will further marginalize
our ethnic people who are in the rural areas," he said. "So you can
see that many people are in refugee camps, as I said, more than 8,000
people in one area are facing starvation."

The report accuses the Burmese military of human rights abuses against
local communities, including beatings, killings, and sexual violence,
as it protects economic projects.

The group and other rights organizations have called on the Chinese
government to halt its investment in an offshore oil and gas project,
and seeks a halt in several dam projects.

Saw Paul Sein Twa says the groups do not oppose development in general
but say public participation and is needed before projects go ahead.

"The fundamental question is development for whom? [This] needs to be
addressed," he said. "The local people have to benefit from any
development project and number two is people participation in this
development process must be assured that people participate. Before
you start an environmental impact statement must be done."

The report says as long as Burma remains under military rule and
communities can not take part in decision-making, increased
development in the border region will accelerate environmental
destruction and lead to unsustainable and inequitable development.
*************************************************************
Global Security Newswire
Japanese Man Sentenced for Sending Dual-Use Equipment to Myanmar
Thursday, Nov. 5, 2009

A Japanese court today handed a Tokyo businessman a suspended two-year
prison sentence after he pleaded guilty to sending equipment to
Myanmar that could be used in the development of nuclear weapons,
Kyodo News reported.

The court also fined the trading firm headed by Keiko Ri, 41, more
than $65,000 for failing to obtain government approval last year
before exporting three grinding devices that could be used in
producing uranium enrichment centrifuges. The uranium enrichment
process can generate nuclear-weapon material as well as fuel for
civilian applications.

"These (devices) could be used to produce nuclear weapons. It could
have a grave impact on world peace and erode trust in our country,"
said Juichiro Kora, the Yokohama District Court judge who presided
over the case.

Ri was also convicted of trying to ship a magnetic measuring device to
Myanmar earlier this year. The government had demanded a two-year
prison sentence and more than $77,000 in fines for the acts (Kyodo
News/Breitbart.com, Nov. 5).
*************************************************************
U.S. Presses Myanmar for a More Open Government
By a WALL STREET JOURNAL Staff Reporter

U.S. diplomats returned from a rare trip to Myanmar facing a new
challenge: How to nurture a budding dialogue with the country's
secretive military regime without boosting its legitimacy in the eyes
of the outside world.

Speaking to reporters in Bangkok on Thursday, U.S. Deputy Assistant
Secretary of State Scot Marciel, said that he and another top
administration official stressed the need for a more open government
in Myanmar, including free and fair elections next year, during
meetings with senior government officials and opposition leader Aung
San Suu Kyi on Tuesday and Wednesday.

But he said it was unclear whether the junta would be willing to take
significant steps -- such as freeing Ms. Suu Kyi and other political
prisoners -- that the U.S. and other Western nations are pushing in
advance of the elections, the first to be held in Myanmar since 1990.

Such measures would be necessary, he said, before the U.S. would
consider further conciliatory moves such as removing its longstanding
sanctions against the country.

"We're willing to move in terms of our bilateral relationship, but
we're only going to do it if there's real progress," he said.

The trip was the highest-ranking U.S. delegation to Myanmar in 14
years, and part of a new Obama administration initiative designed to
restore U.S. influence there after years of frosty relations. The
country's military regime, which seized power in 1962, is widely
criticized for human rights violations and is increasingly viewed as a
potential source of instability in the region as it builds up its
military power.

U.S. officials say they are particularly concerned about recent
indications Myanmar is expanding its ties with North Korea, including
unverified reports it may be pursuing a program of nuclear
proliferation. They say further discussions with the regime could help
shed light on those concerns while also potentially opening the door
for a bigger role for opposition groups in the country's government.

More discussions are expected, including a possible meeting between
President Obama and senior Myanmar officials during an economic summit
in Singapore later this month.
But skeptics fear the dialogue will yield little given the regime's
history of ignoring outside pressure and inducements. The meetings
could also backfire by enhancing the prestige of Myanmar's leaders,
especially if they succeed in wresting more concessions from the
American side.

The American officials "are setting themselves up for a trap here,"
says John Dale, an assistant professor and Myanmar expert at George
Mason University in Fairfax, Va. He and other Myanmar experts believe
the regime desperately wants to gain international acceptance and is
hoping to use negotiations with American representatives to lend
credibility to the coming elections, which dissidents believe will
only cement the junta's lock on power.

If U.S. officials are "at the table long enough, it helps them claim
the elections are legitimate," he says.

Attempts to reach representatives of the Myanmar government, which
rarely speaks to foreign journalists, were unsuccessful.

Part of the problem with the U.S. mission, critics say, is that it's
unclear what would constitute sufficient progress to merit more
rapprochement from the American side. On Thursday, Mr. Marciel said
the elections, whose date remains uncertain, wouldn't be credible if
they didn't include representatives from the opposition groups that
won the last national vote in 1990— an outcome the regime subsequently
ignored. But it was unclear whether that meant Ms. Suu Kyi herself
should participate, or if the U.S. would accept some other compromise.

It was also unclear whether other steps the U.S. and international
advocates are seeking -- such as the involvement of independent
election monitors and the removal of curbs on local media -- would
necessarily help lead to a fair outcome.

The vote will occur under a constitution that many advocates believe
will guarantee an unfair result. Approved by Myanmar residents in a
2008 referendum amid widespread reports of intimidation, it reserves
many government posts and 25% of parliamentary seats for military
officers, and allows the president to hand over power to the military
in emergencies. It also effectively bars Ms. Suu Kyi from seeking
elected office because her two sons are foreign citizens.

Mr. Marciel said he thought the constitution was "flawed" but didn't
elaborate on whether it would have to be scrapped for a fair election
to be held. He also declined to speak in detail about the latest
meetings with Ms. Suu Kyi.

Backers of the U.S. effort -- including Ms. Suu Kyi herself -- believe
that talking with the junta is better than doing nothing, even if the
odds of success are slim. And U.S. officials insist they harbor no
illusions about their effort's likelihood of success.

"The elections could be an opportunity" to improve Myanmar's
situation, but only if they're done right," Mr. Marciel said. "We will
see progress if and when it happens."
*************************************************************
Myanmar PM leaves for first Mekong-Japan summit in Tokyo
www.chinaview.cn  2009-11-05 21:36:13

YANGON, Nov. 5 (Xinhua) -- Myanmar Prime Minister General Thein Sein
left Nay Pyi Taw Thursday to attend the first Mekong-Japan Summit in
Tokyo, Japan, official sources from the new capital said.

Thein Sein's trip to Tokyo is made at the invitation of the government
of Japan.

Myanmar is a member of the six-country Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS)-
Economic Cooperation. The others sharing the Mekong River are China,
Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam.

The GMS has designated the year 2009-2010 as GMS tourism year as part
of its economic cooperation in the sub-region.

In February this year, a Japan-Mekong exchange year was launched in
Myanmar's former capital of Yangon to showcase the cooperation and
friendship between Japan and Myanmar and the event was marked with
joint performance by Japanese and Myanmar artists.

In June this year, Japanese Deputy Foreign Minister Kenichiro Sasae
visited Myanmar, bringing their bilateral relations closer.

Myanmar and Japan have been cooperating in a number of sectors and
Japan traditionally stands as Myanmar's biggest donor country.

Japan's investment in Myanmar, according to figures, so far amounted
to 216.76 million U.S. dollars in 23 projects since 1988.

The bilateral trade between Myanmar and Japan stood 341.8 million
dollars in the 2008-09 fiscal year, of which Myanmar's export to Japan
amounted to 179.6 million dollars with Japan ranking the 6th in
Myanmar's exporting countries line-up. Myanmar's import from Japan
took 162.2 million dollars.
*************************************************************
Myanmar to launch anti-malaria project in three state, divisions
www.chinaview.cn  2009-11-05 20:06:21

YANGON, Nov. 5 (Xinhua) -- Myanmar will launch a one-year project to
fight malaria disease in country's Rakhine state, Bago and Magway
divisions under Japanese grassroot grant assistance, sources with the
Ministry of Health said on Thursday.

The anti-malaria project, which cost about 3 million U.S. dollars,
will be funded by the Sirus Corporation of Japan and the field work is
to be carried out by regional health authorities, the sources said.

Myanmar is striving to cut the number of deaths caused by malaria by
half in the year 2010 in the wake of that about 700,000people in the
country are infected with the disease yearly.

To realize the target, the health authorities are calling for
preventive measures against the fatal disease with the participation
of the entire people and also with a high level of health awareness.

The preventive measures are outlined as imparting knowledge to the
people, using mosquito nets treated with insecticide, cultivating the
habit of visiting hospitals and receiving proper treatment.

In February 2007, the Japanese government had extended similar grant
aid of 178,822 U.S. dollars to Myanmar to help fight malaria in the
country's Bago division covering the region's eastern and western
parts, earlier official report said.

Malaria is among the three diseases of national concern which Myanmar
has been encountering. The other two are HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis
(TB).

Myanmar treats the three diseases as priority with the main objectives
of reducing the morbidity and mortality in a bid to become no longer a
public problem and meet the Millennium Development Goals of the United
Nations.

In its prevention efforts against malaria, the Myanmar government has
distributed 50,000 long lasting insecticidal nets annually since 2000
to hardly accessible areas of national races with up to 400,000
existing bed nets also impregnated with insecticide annually since
then.
*************************************************************
Monsters and Critics - Former Myanmar foreign minister dies in jail
Asia-Pacific News
Nov 5, 2009, 2:06 GMT

Yangon - Former Myanmar foreign minister Win Aung died in Insein
Prison where he was serving a seven-year sentence for corruption,
police and personal friends confirmed on Thursday.

Win Aung, 65, died Wednesday morning from a cerebral hemorrhage, close
friends of the former minister said.

Bespeckled and fluent in English, Win Aung served as foreign minister
and the civilized face for Myanmar's pariah military regime from 1998
to 2004.

In 2004, he was found guilty of corruption and sentenced to seven
years in jail for selling cars imported tax-free for ministry
personnel.

A former member of the Military Intelligence, Win Aung was a close
associate of prime minister General Khin Nyunt, who fell from grace in
November 2004, resulting in a purge of his protégés that included the
former foreign minister.
*************************************************************
Gov Monitor
Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong At APEC Economic Leaders
Meeting
Source: Government of Singapore Posted on: 4th November 2009

PM Lee Hsien Loong said that the upcoming meeting of the APEC Leaders
will focus on the longer term issues as the countries emerge from the
recession.
Nations could work together to foster growth in the region,
specifically more balanced, inclusive and sustainable growth. They can
also further enhance the economic integration of the Asia-Pacific
region.

Below are excerps from the media conference by Prime Minister Lee
Hsien Loong, Chari of the 17th APEC Economic Leaders Meeting

Question-and-Answer Session

Q: Can you sum up what the Singapore Government’s view is on the
proposed role of the US in an East Asian Community?

Our view has always been…America plays an indispensable role in Asia,
in many fields: economic, political, strategic, security. And that is
one of the reasons why APEC is an important forum… APEC is the
grouping which straddles both sides of the Pacific and involves the US
in Asia-Pacific affairs.
It remains the largest and most vibrant economy in the world, it is
the superpower; people talk about a multipolar world, but de facto the
US is the most powerful nation in the world and will be so for some
time to come…

(For) Japan, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, who talks about an East
Asia Community, has also explained the link between US and Japan is
vital, and I think all participants acknowledge that it is important
for Asia, while it is working on regional cooperation, to also
maintain an open and an inclusive framework of cooperation which does
not exclude the US and does not exclude Europe.

Q: What is your assessment of the change in the relationship between
China and the US?

I think that China and the US have had generally a positive,
constructive relationship over the years. It has had its ups and
downs. There have been difficult times, there have been frictions.

And very often at the beginning of the US administration there has
been a difficult running-in period. Because the new administration
wants to pursue a policy which is distinguished from the policy of its
predecessor… but eventually every US president, whether Democrat or
Republican, has decided that there is tremendous US interest at stake
in maintaining a good, stable relationship with China.

In the case of this Obama administration, I think there has been no
clashing of gears. In fact (US Secretary of State) Mrs Hillary Clinton
made her first overseas visit to Asia including China, and from our
point of view that is entirely for their good and we hope that this
will provide a stable framework for other countries in the region to
be friends both with China and with America.

Q: President Barack Obama will be here for the first time. What will
be your message to him and what would you like his message to be for
the region?

Well, our message to him is that the US has many friends and many
interests in the region. We welcome them as a partner and we hope that
we will be able to strengthen the relationship with the US and they
will play a major role in the Asia Pacific.

And I hope his message to the region is that he will want the US to
play this role and that they will be engaged and it will not just be
on trade but also on economic cooperation as well as on security as
well as political issues and cultural issues. It will be a broad
engagement.

Q: Will the Myanmar Prime Minister be attending this summit and, in
the light of beter engagement between the US and Myanmar, how do you
think discussion on issues like the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and
Myanmar’s democracy process will take place in the summit?

I have not had the latest report but I expect Myanmar Prime Minister
Thein Sein to attend the Asean summit. He is usually the Myanmar
leader who attends Asean summits. I think this is a very significant
step forward because it is the first time we are having a US-Asean
Summit with all 10 of the Asean countries participating.

It is a good sign because it means the US has shifted its position and
is now moving to engage Myanmar and I think Myanmar is engaging…and
this is all very good because our view has always been that
ostracising Myanmar and cutting it off altogether is not the
constructive way forward. This is unlikely to yield any results.
Engaging is not going to yield immediate results either because this
is a complex situation and there is no easy solution in Myanmar.

They have embarked on a course of what they call the seven-step road
map to democratisation. They are having elections next year, they are
preparing for the elections next year and I think we should encourage
them along this track and help them where we can to ensure that the
elections are a success.

Aung San Suu Kyi, I think Asean’s view is clear and we have always
said that we believe she ought to be released and I am sure this will
be discussed in the US-Asean summit too and I am sure both sides will
state their views.

Q: Next year marks one of the deadlines of the Bogor goals, adopted by
APEC in 1994 to attain free trade in the Asia Pacific by 2010 for
developed countries and 2020 for developing ones. How well do you
think APEC has done in achieving its goals so far? And the moratorium
on new members implemented in 1997 expires next year – has there been
any discussion about extending it or lifting it to let new members
join?

I think the countries have made some progress towards the Bogor goals.
I am sure that we have not quite achieved everything which was
envisioned when we said by 2010 the developed countries will have
attained free trade within Asia Pacific.

Within the last couple of years, because of the economic
circumstances, in fact, some backward steps have been taken, because
conditions have been hard and people have had to make concessions for
political pressures and realities.

But I think it is a benchmark to measure ourselves against and if we
have not quite achieved all of it, well, I think we have to encourage
ourselves to go further.

The moratorium we have not discussed, whether we will extend it or
which countries to bring in, not yet.

Q: Are you expecting any kind of disruption from civil society groups?

No, I am not expecting any disruption. The IMF-World Bank meeting has,
as part of its normal processes, an engagement with the civil society
groups. APEC does not have such an arrangement and we are not
expecting to have that this time.

The rules for civil society and for public demonstrations in Singapore
are known and we are not changing them for this APEC meeting. Security
is important. We are very concerned about this and we will make sure
we do our best to have a safe and uneventful meeting.
*************************************************************
November 05, 2009 21:56 PM
Dialogue Among Key Myanmar Players Is First Step To Reconciliation: US
Official

BANGKOK, Nov 5 (Bernama) -- An inclusive dialogue among all parties --
including the government, the opposition and minorities -- will be the
first step to move forward for national conciliation in Myanmar, Thai
News Agency (TNA) reported a senior American official as saying.

The United States stresses that a genuine dialogue among the key
players within the country is the best way forward to national
conciliation, said Scot Marciel, US Deputy Assistant Secretary, East
Asian and Pacific Bureau, at a public forum in Bangkok after his two-
day visit to Myanmar, the highest-level American visit in more than a
decade.

Marciel and Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell met Myanmar
Prime Minister Thein Sein, senior government officials, Aung San Suu
Kyi, and some representatives from minority groups during two-day trip
to Naypyidaw and Yangon on Nov 3-4.

Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has been detained for 14 of the
past 20 years.

"We are willing to move ahead in terms of bilateral relations,"
Marcial said, "but we are only going to do that if there is real
progress."

The visit was an exploratory mission and the main purpose was to
explain the US policy review to the key parties there and hear their
views, Marciel said.

The move was to mark a new policy of engagement with Myanmar's ruling
military junta.

US officials urged the government to allow Suu Kyi to have regular
access and engagement with her National League for Democracy (NLD)
colleagues and others and highlighted concerns about the wide range
human rights issues, including political prisoners and treatment of
minority groups, Marciel said.

If the Myanmar government moves ahead with this election without
participation by the parties and groups that won a substantial
majority in the last election, it's not credible, he said at the
forum.

"If there is to be a credible election that fundamentally changes the
dynamic in the country," Marciel explained, "there needs to be
dialogue and there needs to be participation."

According to TNA the American policy review came after its previous
sanctions approach had not achieved the desired results.

The US will maintain existing sanctions pending progress while
beginning a pragmatic engagement with the government and continuing
humanitarian assistance for people of the country, Marciel said.

Campbell was the highest ranking US official to visit Myanmar since
Madeleine Albright went there as US ambassador to the United Nations
in 1995 during Bill Clinton's presidency.

The two-day trip followed discussions between US and Myanmar officials
in New York in September.
*************************************************************
Khaleej Times - Editorial:Ray of Hope in Burma
6 November 2009

Burma is in the news again, this time, at least, for a positive
development. The Burmese opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, in a
surprise move, was allowed to meet visiting US officials by the
military junta. The delegation—comprising Assistant Secretary of State
Kurt Campbell—is the highest-level US contact with Burma’s ruling
hierarchy in 20 years.

While details of the US meeting with Suu Kyi and Burmese Prime
Minister Thein Sein have not been disclosed, the fact that they
occurred at all is positive.

The US decision to engage the Burmese leadership amid continued
sanctions, taken a few weeks earlier, is apparently influenced by a
rethink of its previous policy of isolating the military regime.
Despite longstanding economic sanctions, the US has not been able to
alter the regime’s policies of repression. The fact that Myanmar
enjoys Russian and Chinese support against further sanctions is
something that 
hinders US objectives and reduces pressure on the
regime.

The Burmese military’s decision to allow contact between US officials
and the National League for Democracy (NLD)—led by Kyi—is a
consequence of Ms Kyi writing a letter offering cooperation to General
Than Shwe. Her offer for cooperation entails dialogue with western
diplomats to remove sanctions in the larger interest of the common
people.

This development of a cooperative relationship between the military
and the democratic opposition, guided by mutual benefits, may not last
long, considering their divergent principles. This should also not be
taken as a guarantee that elections scheduled for early 2010 will be
smooth sailing for the repressed opposition. Even after winning a
resounding victory in the last election held in 1990, the NLD had not
been allowed to form a government. The two decades in between the
elections have been marked by detentions and measures to quell even
peaceful protests by monks. Fearful of releasing Kyi’s release for pre-
election canvassing, the junta has been resorting to lame excuses of
extending her detention at home to sabotage the election.

The question worrying the Burmese leadership will be how long can they
stagemanage the status quo? They may have succeeded in suppressing
political movement for democracy so far, but the discontent among the
people is growing by the day. Not only that, the leadership feels
compelled to justify the political situation. One sure way of doing
that is by holding elections. Ironically, as witnessed previously,
with the outcome of the elections not to the liking of the military
command, the whole exercise turns into a grand pretence. While this
may have succeeded in the last election, the situation is different
now, with the regime under increasing pressure domestically and from
abroad. After the establishment of contact with Washington—something
Myanmar probably covets despite its nonchalance— and in case of
continued engagement it will become increasingly difficult for Burma
to continue its policy of subjugation. As for the US, it is better to
keep communication channels open. Isolating regimes like Iran, North
Korea and Burma has not helped Washington, something it will do well
to foster into its foreign policy.
*************************************************************
Bangladesh and Myanmar
Fenced in
Nov 5th 2009 | DHAKA AND TEKNAF
From The Economist print edition
More grief for the Rohingyas

“WE HAVE an excellent relationship with the soldiers on the other
side,” says Khalilar Rahman, a Bangladesh Rifles commander at a remote
outpost on a hillock in Ghumdhum, on the border with Myanmar. A
Burmese outpost is a stone’s-throw away, across the paddy-field below,
where Burmese labourers are frantically working to build a border
fence. Concrete pillars stretch as far as the eye can see. The
movement of people and goods here—in happier days earmarked as the
route for a highway—has stopped completely.

As Myanmar prepares for elections next year, tensions along the 320km
(200-mile) border with Bangladesh have risen. As usual, that involves
more persecution for the Rohingyas, a Muslim minority whom Myanmar
refuses to recognise as Burmese. Because of them, though no one says
it openly, Bangladesh is probably quite happy with the fast-emerging
fence.

However, a military build-up on the Burmese side last month prompted
Bangladesh to put its border force on alert, and to deploy 3,000 more
troops. But Bangladesh’s defence preparedness is woeful. So the
government has sought to make light of rising tensions over Myanmar’s
provocative exploration in disputed waters of the gas-rich Bay of
Bengal.

Rohingyas, who fled Rakhine state in Myanmar in recent weeks for an
unregistered refugee camp, speak of a systematic campaign of killing,
rape, torture and religious persecution by the Burmese border force.
Monwara, a 25-year-old woman, says that last month Burmese soldiers
held her and her eight-year-old daughter overnight. She was raped and
fled to Bangladesh. Other recent arrivals speak of slave labour and
torture. One says the Burmese have set up camps in Muslim graveyards.

Many local Bangladeshis dispute the refugees’ claims. They already
compete for food, land and jobs with more than 200,000 stateless
Rohingyas, who live around Cox’s Bazar, one of the poorest parts of
Bangladesh. Some 28,000 Rohingyas have official refugee status, and
live in two camps run by the United Nations High Commissioner for
Refugees (UNHCR). The rest are in unregistered camps. Conditions are
atrocious, even by local standards.

For years the fear of a large-scale exodus from Myanmar, as happened
in 1978 and again in 1991-92, has scuppered efforts by international
agencies to nudge Bangladesh’s government into improving the lot of
the Rohingyas. Its attitude has softened in recent years, say the
agencies. But this is largely confined to improving the lives of
registered refugees.

Mostly, Bangladesh is an innocent bystander, but not always. Nosima, a
19-year-old Rohingya, says that after four years in Bangladesh the
local MP in the border district of Bandarban sent her family and a few
others back to Myanmar. On arrival, her newborn baby died. Locals
warned her that she would be killed by the Burmese border forces. So
she made her way back to Bangladesh, burying her baby’s body on the
bank of a river.

Saber Azam, the UNHCR’s representative in Dhaka, believes the only
solution to the Rohingyas’ plight lies in Myanmar recognising them as
its own people. But few in Bangladesh harbour hopes of fairness or
humanity from the junta.
*************************************************************
Six inmates die in Insein prison in a week
by Nem Davies
Thursday, 05 November 2009 21:37

New Delhi (Mizzima) – Six prisoners including, former Foreign Minister
U Win Aung have died in a week in the infamous Insein Prison, Rangoon,
it is learnt.

Prison sources said that U Win Aung (65), Ma Thida Soe from
Pazuntaung, Mayanthee from Mingaladon, Ko Phyo, Myint Wei and Pho Si
died  between from October 28   and November 4.

Prison officials refused to answer queries on the pretext that a
meeting was in progress when Mizzima contacted the Prison Department,
Rangoon Division for details.

Aung Kyaw Oo of the Thai based 'Association of Assistance to Political
Prisoners-Burma' (AAPP-B) said, "We heard that diarrhoea was endemic
in the prison for about three days. It is certain something has
happened inside the prison but we do not know the details yet".

Advocate U Aung Thein, whose license was revoked by the regime while
representing his clients in political cases, said that there were
7,000 to 8,000 prisoners including political prisoners in Insein
prison.

"Some of my clients had TB, malnutrition and skin diseases," U Aung
Thein said.

Some prisoners died in prison from internal injuries that they
sustained in interrogation camps and police stations. They were
subject to brutal torture like beating and kicking during
interrogation before being sent to prison.

Monk U Pyinyar Thiri, who is now living in New Delhi, India, recalled
his suffering in the No. 1 Interrogation Camp in Monywa, for his role
in the monk-led protests in September 2007. He was deprived of food
and water for about a week in custody, he said.

"They kicked me on my head and chest. They hit me on my rib cage and
stomped on my toes with their combat boots until they got the
statement they wanted from me. They tortured me until I fell
unconscious," Uzin Pyinyar Thiri said.

The families of affluent prisoners can afford to treat their loved
ones in prison hospitals and township hospitals outside but most
prisoners die in prison without proper treatment, former prisoners
said.

According to AAPP-B statistics, 141 political prisoners died in
Burmese prisons during 21 years, from 1988 to 2009.
*************************************************************
The Irrawaddy - A Victim of the Junta’s Dog-Eat-Dog World
By WAI MOE - Thursday, November 5, 2009

Win Aung, a former foreign minister and one of ex-spy chief Gen Khin
Nyunt’s aides, died on Wednesday morning at 1:55 a.m. local time in
Rangoon’s infamous Insein Prison. He was 65.

According to prison sources in Rangoon, Win Aung died of a cerebral
hemorrhage. Burmese authorities allowed Win Aung’s family to post his
obituary in Thursday’s state-run newspapers.

He is survived by his wife, one daughter and two sons. His younger
son, Thaung Suu Nyein, is the editor-in-chief of a leading Rangoon-
based weekly, 7 Days News Journal.

Win Aung was arrested in September 2004, a month before a government
crackdown on powerful Military Intelligence officers. The junta
announced Win Aung and his deputy Khin Maung Win’s retirement
following news that Win Aung had told senior officials at an
Association of Southeast Asian Nations Ministry meeting in Jakarta in
July 2004 that Burmese Prime Minister Khin Nyunt was in political
trouble.

“He [Khin Nyunt] is in a dangerous position,” Win Aung was quoted as
saying. “Khin Nyunt may have to flee the country. If that happens, I
will have to flee with him.”

Win Aung was replaced by Maj-Gen Nyan Win, the deputy head of the
military training college who was junta chief Snr-Gen Than Shwe’s
choice.

After his arrest, Wing Aung was detained under house arrest for two
years. In 2006, he was sentenced to a 7-year jail term on charges of
misuse of authority. He was detained in Insein Prison until he died.

Win Aung served as Burma’s foreign minister under the military regime
from 1998 to 2004. He had previously been Burmese ambassador to
Germany and the United Kingdom before being recalled to Burma to take
up the foreign minister position.

Win Aung led a Burmese delegation to the UN General Assembly in
September 2003 a few months after a brutal crackdown on pro-democracy
leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s convoy in Depayin had led to international
criticism of the regime and economic sanctions on Burma.

At the UN, he said it was “disconcerting that some countries have
chosen to turn a blind eye to the reality.”

In his earlier days, Win Aung was an officer with Military
Intelligence. As a major, he was close to then spy chief Brig-Gen Tin
Oo, the No 2 in the country after dictator Ne Win.

Following Tin Oo’s removal, Win Aung was reappointed as a counsel-
general with several Burmese consulates in Asia in the early 1980s.

Fluent in English, Win Aung was said to be media savvy with foreign
journalists. Unlike current Foreign Minister Nyan Win, he was willing
to give regular interviews with foreign media, including Time
Magazine.

“I am a democratic person myself,” Win Aung told Time in 1999. “I
would like my children and myself to live under a real democratic
situation.”

He added that this sentiment was also held by junta chief Snr-Gen Than
Shwe and other members of the junta.

Before his removal from the foreign minister post, he wrote religious
and political articles under the pen name of Sithu Nyein Aye.

Burma observers generally concurred that Win Aung was one of the first
senior junta officials to become a victim of the dog-eat-dog world
that exists in Burma’s military hierarchy.
*************************************************************
The Irrawaddy - Suu Kyi Rejects NLD Meeting: State Media
By SAW YAN NAING - Thursday, November 5, 2009

Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi canceled a meeting with
leaders of her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), because
government authorities exclude her longtime colleague Tin Oo, who is
under house arrest, according to Burmese state-run newspapers.

The authorities had given permission for Suu Kyi, who is also under
house arrest, to meet with NLD party leaders before her scheduled
meeting with Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific
Affairs Kurt Campbell on Wednesday, according to The New Light of
Myanmar in a story published on Thursday.

Suu Kyi refused to attend the NLD leaders’ meeting without Tin Oo, who
is a vice chairman of the party.

“What she wanted is that all NLD leaders should be involved in the
meeting,” said Nyan Win, an NLD spokesman.

Meanwhile, ordinary Burmese—politicians, businessmen, schoolteachers,
and others—were transfixed on the news about Suu Kyi’s meeting with a
four-member US delegation visiting the country on a two-day
information gathering mission, according to Rangoon residents.

Relations between the US and Burma are in the preliminary stages of
direct contact between the two governments, which have not had normal
relations for nearly 20 years.
US economic sanctions against Burma have been in force for more than
10 years. Both countries have expressed a willingness to resume
negotiations designed to improve relations.

Journals, newspapers and broadcast media were allowed to report
details about the US delegation’s visit and publish photographs of pro-
democracy leader Suu Kyi and the members of the delegation.

Some Burmese journalists working for local journals and foreign news
agencies were allowed to photograph Suu Kyi and the US delegation, but
no questions were permitted.
A journalist in Rangoon said The Myanmar Times and Bi Weekly journal
sold very well on Thursday because of the coverage and photographs of
Suu Kyi.

“People also talked a lot about Suu Kyi in teashops and markets,” she
said.

A government worker in Rangoon said, “I wanted to see and read the
news. As soon as I heard there were photos of Suu Kyi published, I
went and bought a newspaper.”
A schoolteacher in Rangoon said, “This is good news for us. But, I
can’t believe it. We have to wait and see.”

Suu Kyi news was also carried on state-run media such as Myanmar
Ahlin, and The Mirror, as well as state-run Television MRTV.
*************************************************************
The Irrawaddy - Junta Continues Crackdown
By LAWI WENG - Thursday, November 5, 2009

Forty-one people, including journalists, artists and relief workers,
have been arrested by the Burmese authorities in Rangoon in October
and are being held in unknown locations, according to the rights group
Assistance Association for Political Prisoners—Burma (AAPP).

Bo Kyi, the joint-secretary of the Thailand-based group, told The
Irrawaddy on Thursday, “We got confirmation that 41 people were
arrested on October, but we don’t know all of them or where they have
been taken. We don’t even know the reason they were arrested. We also
have information that there are more people in hiding.”

The detainees include Khant Min Htet, a writer; Paing Soe Oo, a
freelance journalist; Thant Zin Soe, and Nyi Nyi Tun, editors; Min
Satta, a songwriter; and Nyi Paing, a singer, according to the AAPP.

The families of the detained are trying to locate their loved ones.

The mother of a detainee, Khant Min Htet, said, “They took my son two
weeks ago, and I don’t have any information about where he is. I’m
really worried because he was sick a lot when he was at home.”

She said when the authorities took her son from her house, they told
her he would be questioned, and then released.

Bo Kyi said, “They [Burmese authorities] don’t treat people
accordingly to the rule of law when they are arrested. They don’t
inform the detainees’ families. They take them to some interrogation
camp where they beat and torture them in order to get the confession
they want.”

According to AAPP, 2,119 political prisoners are being held in prisons
across the country.

Meanwhile, Ni Mo Hlaing, a member of the National League for
Democracy, has been hospitalized in Thayet Prison, according to her
family.

Ni Mo Hlaing’s sister told The Irrawaddy that Ni Mo Hlaing is very
ill, and she is not eating properly.

Her sister said they cried together when she visited her last month.
“Her face is very pale. She is skinny and has lost weight,” she said.

Ni Mo Hlaing was arrested in 2008 following the demonstrations and was
sentenced to 7 and one-half years in prison.