This from Sheldon Brown's Bentride Podcast (@ 8:50). No wonder manufacturing is a declining sector in North America! This can't be the total cost of production (stock and labor); does the figure apply to labor cost only?
Luke wrote: > This from Sheldon Brown's Bentride Podcast (@ 8:50). No wonder > manufacturing is a declining sector in North America! This can't be the > total cost of production (stock and labor); does the figure apply to > labor cost only?
Luke wrote: > This from Sheldon Brown's Bentride Podcast (@ 8:50). No wonder > manufacturing is a declining sector in North America! This can't be the > total cost of production (stock and labor); does the figure apply to > labor cost only?
It's quite possible that $8 is the cost of an aluminum frame. Aluminum is extremely inexpensive (why do you think the bicycle manufacturers are using it?!). Look how cosmetically poor the welds are--no effort is put into filing them. Welding seven or eight pieces of aluminum tubing together is not a long or expensive process.
I think the real question is what is the ROI, including the cost of the equipment and factory.
In article <051220051933154076%lucasirag...@rogers.com>,
Luke <lucasirag...@rogers.com> wrote: > This from Sheldon Brown's Bentride Podcast (@ 8:50). No wonder > manufacturing is a declining sector in North America! This can't be the > total cost of production (stock and labor); does the figure apply to > labor cost only?
Could be. The anecdote I heard from a maker of electronic I/O devices was that when they closed their domestic manufacturing facility, the economics were such that they could air-ship completed products to North America from China for the same total mfg cost as making the connector cords here.
It's Japan all over again,
-- Ryan Cousineau rcous...@sfu.ca http://www.wiredcola.com/ "I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos
In article <43950ba2$0$38660$742ec...@news.sonic.net>, SMS
<scharf.ste...@geemail.com> wrote: > Luke wrote: > > This from Sheldon Brown's Bentride Podcast (@ 8:50). No wonder > > manufacturing is a declining sector in North America! This can't be the > > total cost of production (stock and labor); does the figure apply to > > labor cost only?
> It's quite possible that $8 is the cost of an aluminum frame. Aluminum > is extremely inexpensive (why do you think the bicycle manufacturers are > using it?!). Look how cosmetically poor the welds are--no effort is put > into filing them. Welding seven or eight pieces of aluminum tubing > together is not a long or expensive process.
Still, to put it in perspective, the cost is only a couple of dollars more than the price of a typical fast food meal. Unfinished welds aside, that's an incredible achievement - if achievement is the right word. It's an astounding fact. I wonder what the cost of production would be on this side of the Pacific for a frame of comparable quality.
With domestic industry under siege by the Asian manufacturing juggernaut on so many fronts, it's obvious the scope and degree of economic advantage is pervasive.
> I think the real question is what is the ROI, including the cost of the > equipment and factory.
Well, generally speaking, it's enough to flood the region (mainland China, specifically) with a torrent of FDI; and capital, supposedly, always seeks the highest rate of return. How long can it continue?
Luke <lucasirag...@rogers.com> wrote: > In article <43950ba2$0$38660$742ec...@news.sonic.net>, SMS > <scharf.ste...@geemail.com> wrote:
> > Luke wrote: > > > This from Sheldon Brown's Bentride Podcast (@ 8:50). No wonder > > > manufacturing is a declining sector in North America! This can't be the > > > total cost of production (stock and labor); does the figure apply to > > > labor cost only?
> > It's quite possible that $8 is the cost of an aluminum frame. Aluminum > > is extremely inexpensive (why do you think the bicycle manufacturers are > > using it?!). Look how cosmetically poor the welds are--no effort is put > > into filing them. Welding seven or eight pieces of aluminum tubing > > together is not a long or expensive process.
> Still, to put it in perspective, the cost is only a couple of dollars > more than the price of a typical fast food meal. Unfinished welds > aside, that's an incredible achievement - if achievement is the right > word. It's an astounding fact. I wonder what the cost of production > would be on this side of the Pacific for a frame of comparable quality.
> With domestic industry under siege by the Asian manufacturing > juggernaut on so many fronts, it's obvious the scope and degree of > economic advantage is pervasive.
> > I think the real question is what is the ROI, including the cost of the > > equipment and factory.
> Well, generally speaking, it's enough to flood the region (mainland > China, specifically) with a torrent of FDI; and capital, supposedly, > always seeks the highest rate of return. How long can it continue?
> Luke
See Japan, postwar rise of. Or Taiwan, or Korea. Basically, it continues until a combination of rising wages and skills in the country effectively puts them out of the global low-end manufacturing business, but into more skilled, more valuable specialties. With Japan, it meant they stopped manufacturing cheap electronics and stamped-tin trash and became suppliers of good electronics, cameras, automobiles, bicycles, and so forth. Taiwan similarly faced that pattern, to the point that while they produce many good, high-end bikes (Giants, most notably, but a great many other non-crappy bicycles are built there, regardless of the nationality of the company that designs the bikes and puts their name on them), they are now facing serious competition from China for the Wal-Mart end of the market. Korea is similarly making the transition from making terrible cars and commodity electronics to better cars, desireable mobile phones, and HDTVs.
The interesting thing about China and India is that both have much larger populations to draw on, many of whom are not off the proverbial (and often literal) farms yet. That means they have a potentially longer cycle of drawing workers into good jobs than my other three examples.
After China? Well, it will be a while, but Africa is waiting for its turn. Most African countries suffer from devastating AIDS rates, anarchy, horrendously bad political leadership, or all three, so it's a bit like Maoist China. Until there is some stability in Africa, industrialization can't happen.
-- Ryan Cousineau rcous...@sfu.ca http://www.wiredcola.com/ "I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos
Luke wrote: > This from Sheldon Brown's Bentride Podcast (@ 8:50). No wonder > manufacturing is a declining sector in North America! This can't be the > total cost of production (stock and labor); does the figure apply to > labor cost only?
> This from Sheldon Brown's Bentride Podcast (@ 8:50). No wonder > manufacturing is a declining sector in North America! This can't be the > total cost of production (stock and labor); does the figure apply to > labor cost only?
>> This from Sheldon Brown's Bentride Podcast (@ 8:50). No wonder >> manufacturing is a declining sector in North America! This can't be >> the total cost of production (stock and labor); does the figure >> apply to labor cost only?
>>> This from Sheldon Brown's Bentride Podcast (@ 8:50). No wonder >>> manufacturing is a declining sector in North America! This can't be >>> the total cost of production (stock and labor); does the figure >>> apply to labor cost only?
Luke wrote: > This from Sheldon Brown's Bentride Podcast (@ 8:50). No wonder > manufacturing is a declining sector in North America! This can't be the > total cost of production (stock and labor); does the figure apply to > labor cost only?
Luke wrote: > In article <43950ba2$0$38660$742ec...@news.sonic.net>, SMS > <scharf.ste...@geemail.com> wrote:
>> Luke wrote: >>> This from Sheldon Brown's Bentride Podcast (@ 8:50). No wonder >>> manufacturing is a declining sector in North America! This can't be the >>> total cost of production (stock and labor); does the figure apply to >>> labor cost only? >> It's quite possible that $8 is the cost of an aluminum frame. Aluminum >> is extremely inexpensive (why do you think the bicycle manufacturers are >> using it?!). Look how cosmetically poor the welds are--no effort is put >> into filing them. Welding seven or eight pieces of aluminum tubing >> together is not a long or expensive process.
> Still, to put it in perspective, the cost is only a couple of dollars > more than the price of a typical fast food meal.
Yes, but the margin on a fast food meal is very high, the margin on a bicycle frame is very low.
>> I think the real question is what is the ROI, including the cost of the >> equipment and factory.
> Well, generally speaking, it's enough to flood the region (mainland > China, specifically) with a torrent of FDI; and capital, supposedly, > always seeks the highest rate of return. How long can it continue?
In some cases this is true, but in many cases companies are going to China because they have dreams of selling to the Chinese population and don't want to be shut out. Most of the automobile companies that built in China are not profitable.
Luke wrote: > This from Sheldon Brown's Bentride Podcast (@ 8:50). No wonder > manufacturing is a declining sector in North America! This can't be the > total cost of production (stock and labor); does the figure apply to > labor cost only?
Actually I think the labor cost is insignificant...I'm pretty sure these frames are built by robots...
Sheldon "Open The Pod Bay Door, HAL..." Brown +------------------------------------------------+ | Love at its best means marriage, and it is | | altogether the most beautiful thing in life | | -- William Dean Howells | +------------------------------------------------+ Harris Cyclery, West Newton, Massachusetts Phone 617-244-9772 FAX 617-244-1041 http://harriscyclery.com Hard-to-find parts shipped Worldwide http://captainbike.comhttp://sheldonbrown.com
Sheldon Brown wrote: > Actually I think the labor cost is insignificant...I'm pretty sure these > frames are built by robots...
Ah!... I was wondering about this. But still someone has to build, tend, and repair the robots, perform other prep work and cleaning up around the place, produce and transport the materials, produce the energy, etc. Mechanized production is often very efficient, but $/hr x hours worked is still embedded in every aspect of it.
Who makes the robots, I wonder?
4lbs of Al tubing alone would cost more the $8 in the US...
Cousineau <rcous...@sfu.ca> wrote: > > Well, generally speaking, it's enough to flood the region (mainland > > China, specifically) with a torrent of FDI; and capital, supposedly, > > always seeks the highest rate of return. How long can it continue?
> > Luke
> See Japan, postwar rise of. Or Taiwan, or Korea. Basically, it continues > until a combination of rising wages and skills in the country > effectively puts them out of the global low-end manufacturing business, > but into more skilled, more valuable specialties. With Japan, it meant > they stopped manufacturing cheap electronics and stamped-tin trash and > became suppliers of good electronics, cameras, automobiles, bicycles, > and so forth. Taiwan similarly faced that pattern, to the point that > while they produce many good, high-end bikes (Giants, most notably, but > a great many other non-crappy bicycles are built there, regardless of > the nationality of the company that designs the bikes and puts their > name on them), they are now facing serious competition from China for > the Wal-Mart end of the market. Korea is similarly making the transition > from making terrible cars and commodity electronics to better cars, > desireable mobile phones, and HDTVs.
<snip>
More in my mind when I posed the question was the nature of North America's commercial relationship with the Asian tigers - (with China's emergence onto the global economic stage, a more accurate term would be elephant!) For Japan, Korea, Taiwan - the post WWII success stories you allude to - the existence of, and easy access to the greatest consumer market in the world, the USA, was crucial to building their industrial, export driven economies and laying the foundation for affluence. That it was an explicit aim of American foreign policy to encourage these economic ties with the intent of fortifying strategic alliances also fueled their rise as economic powers.
The reality now is that the USA, in terms of relative wealth and economic clout, is not what it was a half century ago. How long can it continue to reprise its roll as the globe's most insatiable shopper? At some point the bill has to come due.
>> This from Sheldon Brown's Bentride Podcast (@ 8:50). No wonder >> manufacturing is a declining sector in North America! This can't be the >> total cost of production (stock and labor); does the figure apply to >> labor cost only?
> Actually I think the labor cost is insignificant...I'm pretty sure these > frames are built by robots...
I recall one bicycle shop owner claiming that AL frames were actually welded by hand, while steel frames were welded robotically. I don't believe that this is the case though.
SMS <scharf.ste...@geemail.com> wrote: > Sheldon Brown wrote: > > Luke wrote:
> >> This from Sheldon Brown's Bentride Podcast (@ 8:50). No wonder > >> manufacturing is a declining sector in North America! This can't be the > >> total cost of production (stock and labor); does the figure apply to > >> labor cost only?
> > Actually I think the labor cost is insignificant...I'm pretty sure these > > frames are built by robots...
> I recall one bicycle shop owner claiming that AL frames were actually > welded by hand, while steel frames were welded robotically. I don't > believe that this is the case though.
I venture to guess that both types of frames are made both ways.
Both materials exist at virtually all points in the market, from the cheapest department-store junk to signed-by-the-welder bespoke jobs. I'm pretty sure the technology to robo-weld either material is available, too. Aluminum is supposed to be a bit trickier to weld from what I hear, but both materials require expertise when they are as thin as high-end bicycle tubing.
-- Ryan Cousineau rcous...@sfu.ca http://www.wiredcola.com/ "I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos
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